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05/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that the manager has been replaced and the Royals are settling back into their customary place toward the bottom of the American League Central standings, the next question is, where do they go from here?
Well, let's take a look at how things are shaping up, both in the short-term and long-term.
For new manager Ned Yost, the good news is that expectations can't get much lower, considering he took over a last-place team on May 13. To his credit, Kansas City has gone 5-2 since Yost began filling out the lineup cards.
The team has a bona fide ace in Zack Greinke, who has established himself as one of the game's best. He is also establishing himself as maybe the most wasted talent in the majors. Greinke boasts a 2.72 ERA, however the bullpen has managed to squander the lead in four of his nine starts on the year. That, quite simply, is amazing.
Along those same lines, the Royals have Joakim Soria, one of the game's premier closers. Like Greinke, the team hasn't quite taken full advantages of his services considering its record (17-25).
Surely, those two names will be floated around at the trade deadline because, let's face it, what's the point in having a top-notch closer if you're only using him once or twice a week? Similarly, what's the point in having a Cy Young pitcher if you're not able to score runs behind him.
Then again, Soria is signed pretty cheap -- he'll make $3 million this season and $4 million next season, with the team holding options from 2012-14 -- and Greinke is locked up through 2012. Both players are in their mid-20s, but how old will they be by the time the Royals are truly ready to contend? Does it make more sense to get value for them now and dive wholeheartedly into this rebuilding thing? At some point, those are questions general manager Dayton Moore will have to consider.
But enough of the gloom and dreary. Let's look at some other guys Moore hopes will be wearing Royals' blue for years to come.
In an interview with the team's website this week, general manager Dayton Moore said the focus is obviously to keep an eye on the future.
"We're going to continue to do what we've been doing with regards to developing players in the farm system," Moore said. "We've got a few players doing well in Triple-A, which is an upgrade from last year. Our Double-A team is doing very well. And we've got to continue to focus on developing quality pitchers that impact our Major League team, and position players as well."
First baseman Billy Butler (.337) continues to hit everything in his path. Second baseman Mike Aviles (.375) is equally hot.
Yost understands that he needs to evaluate the young guys -- first baseman Kila Ka'aihue, second baseman Chris Getz, center fielder Mitch Maier and catcher Brayan Pena, to name a few. Yost also knows first-rounders Mike Moustakas ('07, third base), Eric Hosmer ('08, first base) and Aaron Crow ('08, pitcher) will eventually be worked into the mix. Also making their way up the organization's pipeline are outfielder Derrick Robinson, catcher Wil Myers and pitchers Mike Montgomery and Blaine Hardy.
Understandably, Royals fans have grown weary of the constant eye to the future. But in order to take that step forward, the evaluation process must start now.
YOUNG TIGERS PAYING DIVIDENDS
The influence of the Detroit Tigers' rookies extends beyond mohawk haircuts, and more importantly, to the field.
Recent callup Casper Wells became the latest to join the party during Wednesday's 5-1 win at Oakland as the young outfielder went 2-for-5 with a double and two RBI in only his second big league start. Second baseman Danny Worth has gone 4-for-10 in three games since being called up last week.
Center fielder Austin Jackson was with the club to start the year. Jackson, the AL Rookie of the Month for April, is hitting .329 and leads the team with six stolen bases.
Then there is rookie left fielder Brennan Boesch, who is hitting a ridiculous .354 in 22 games this season. His .987 OPS ranks second on the team behind only Miguel Cabrera (1.030), who leads the majors with 38 RBI. Boesch registered an RBI in 12 of his first 19 games, the first time a Tiger had done that since 1920, according to the Detroit Free Press.
"I think the rookies have made a good impression," manager Jim Leyland said on the team's website. "Veteran players like good players. They like good, young players who got talent that can help them win."
TWINS LOOKING TO REGROUP FOLLOWING POOR ROAD TRIP
The Minnesota Twins would be well-advised not to delve too deeply in their just-concluded seven-game road trip against AL East foes New York, Toronto and Boston.
They entered the trip with a 2 1/2-game lead in the AL Central and eager to see how they measured up against other top contenders in the league. Over the last two seasons, the Twins have gone just 2-17 in those three cities.
Having gone 2-5 during their latest trip, let's just say the jury is still out.
"Two-and-five is not a great road trip," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "It was a tough road trip, we knew that going into it -- facing good pitching, good hitting teams. We battled through it. We had our chances in a few more of them. But overall, not a great trip. We did not swing the bats as well as we're capable of and we didn't pitch as good."
That 2 1/2-game cushion has now vanished, as Minnesota enters the weekend tied with Detroit (24-17) for first place. Most alarmingly, starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, who was so dominant in April (3-0, 0.93), is now 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in four starts. Being that it's still only May, it's not time to start panicking just yet.
The Twins kick off a nine-game homestand beginning with Milwaukee tonight, and they'll get another crack at the Yankees during a three-game set next week.
WHITE SOX G.M. TO TEAM: RELAX
The message earlier this week from Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams to his team was simple: pay attention to details and fundamentals, but also lighten up and have some fun.
Sensing some frustration and uncertainty in the wake of the team's 16-22 start, Williams called an impromptu 25-minute meeting prior to Wednesday's game against the Angels. Rather than flip over tables and demand accountability, the tone was much more light-hearted as Williams told the players to allow themselves to have a little fun. He even went as far as to nix early trade concerns, though he acknowledged that other GMs have called.
"I told them, 'Wait a second, we usually make these calls, you're calling me?'" Williams said. "'No it doesn't work that way.' So they've been told, 'Thank you, but no thank you.' That's the end of it. We still expect to win."
Manager Ozzie Guillen, not surprisingly, has a different take on team meetings.
"Good teams win games, bad teams have meetings," Guillen told local reporters on Wednesday. "We've already had two."
CLEVELAND'S LINEUP SHUFFLING DUE TO INJURIES
Cleveland Indians' leadoff man Asdrubal Cabrera (fractured left forearm) is likely out until August while No. 2 hitter Grady Sizemore (left knee contusion) is hoping to return from the disabled list in June. That is, if Sizemore doesn't need surgery on his balky knee.
With Cleveland (15-24) already in last place in the AL Central, manager Manny Acta is in the unenviable position of playing mix-and-match with the top of his lineup.
"It's tough, it's very tough," Acta said. "I don't think anybody anticipated losing two of our best players here. But everybody has their problems. Nobody said it would be easy."
Recent call up Trevor Crowe is expected to hold down the leadoff spot for the foreseeable future, while Mark Grudzielanek is likely to bat second whenever he is in the lineup at second base. Jason Donald was called up on Tuesday to fill Cabrera's roster spot. Donald was penciled into the No. 2 spot in Thursday's lineup, though Acta said he would be moved down in the order.
"We don't want to put too much pressure on these kids," Acta told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "We want to see if they can get something going, but we also have to understand those are two important spots in the lineup and you need some production out of them."
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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