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06/03/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pick the horses out of a hat for Saturday's running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes. Any of the 12 horses has a good chance of winning the third jewel of racing's Triple Crown.
The two second-place horses from the first two legs of the series are the lukewarm favorites with the Dwyer Stakes winner the third choice. Ice Box is 3-1 in the program, First Dude is 7-2 and Fly Down is 9-2. None of the other nine entrants are less than 10-1 in the morning-line.
Ice Box and Fly Down are trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito. Uptowncharlybrown, 10-1, is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin who had Jazil win the 2006 Belmont. Bob Baffert, who sends out Game On Dude, won the 2001 Belmont with favorite Point Given and Todd Pletcher, who trains Interactif, won the 2007 running with the filly Rags to Riches.
"Obviously (with favorites), there's more pressure, anxiety, on the other hand, if they run well, you have to be content," said Zito. "I always like to steal Billy Turner's line, 'It's pressure when you don't have Seattle Slew."
Post position should have no bearing on the outcome of the race. Belmont Park is the largest track in the country and all the jockeys are veteran riders. Alan Garcia, a young up and coming reinsman, won the race two years ago aboard Da' Tara.
Garcia and John Velazquez are the only two riders in the race to have won the Test of Champions. Velazquez won aboard Rags to Riches.
Ice Box won the Florida Derby, went off at better than 11-1 in the Run for the Roses and finished a fast closing second to Super Saver. His stablemate Fly Down was ninth in the Louisiana Derby and had a five week break before winning the Dwyer.
First Dude likes to be near the lead. He was fifth in the Florida Derby, third in the Blue Grass Stakes to Stately Victor and got second in the Preakness after being on the lead.
"He's a big, strong, long-striding colt, and this track should suit him," said trainer Dale Romans about First Dude.
Along with Uptowncharlybrown the other 10-1 horses in the race are Make Music for Me and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown raced at Tampa Bay Downs this winter where he won the Pasco Stakes, was third in the Sam F. Davis and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby. he was third in the Lexington behind recent winner Exhi.
"He's been doing great since we got him, and I am excited about our chances," said McLaughlin who succeeds the late Alan Seewald as Uptowncharlybrown's trainer. "I'm looking forward to running him."
Make Music for Me is trained by Alexis Barba, who can become the first female trainer to win the Belmont. The colt was fourth in the Kentucky Derby after being sixth in the Blue Grass.
Game On Dude is coming off a win in the Lone Star Derby in Texas. Earlier he was seventh in the Florida Derby and fifth in the Derby Trial.
"I am looking forward to seeing what he will do going a distance of ground," said Baffert. "That's the key to the Belmont -- having a horse who can go that far."
None of the horses in the race may ever run 1 1/2-miles again.
Veteran trainer Bill Mott is going after his first Belmont Stakes victory. He trains Drosselmeyer for WinStar Farm, the owner of Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver. Drosselmeyer was fourth in the Risen Star Stakes as the 2-1 favorite, came back to be third in the Louisiana Derby and was second in the Dwyer as the 7-10 favorite.
"I think he's in there with a chance," said Mott about his horse who is 12-1.
Also at 12-1 in the program is Interactif. As a two-year-old he did very well on the turf, winning two stakes and finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Earlier this year he was second in the San Felipe Stakes and fourth in the Blue Grass.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor is 15-1 in the morning-line. Trained by Mike Maker, the chestnut colt was eighth in the Run for the Roses.
Dave in Dixie and Stay Put are both 20-1 in the program and Spangles Star brings up the rear at 30-1.
Close your eyes and pick a winner. I like Make Music for Me to be part of the exacta. Throw in any of the other horses and you got yourself a winning ticket.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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