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06/04/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Zito's Ice Box is the 3-1 morning line favorite for this Saturday's Belmont Stakes, but his come-from-the-clouds style might not be well-suited to the 1 1/2-mile race.
Only one horse since 1998 has won the third leg of the Triple Crown after racing last or next-to-last through the first quarter-mile. That was Jazil back in 2006 and the only reason he was able to close from far back was due to the insanely fast early fractions of 23 and 47 1/5 set by Bob and John. It's highly doubtful this year's field will run anywhere near those numbers.
A few of the other top choices - Fly Down, Stately Victor, Make Music for Me and Stay Put - also come from off-the-pace so they'll have to alter their running style to suit the distance as well or be caught 10 lengths behind the pacesetters through slow internal fractions.
Two horses that should be close to the pace, if not first and second, are First Dude and Game On Dude. The last time the two "dudes" met they finished out of the money in the Florida Derby. The former ran fifth while the latter ended up seventh.
First Dude has won only one race in his career, but he was extremely game in defeat vs. Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness. Racing on the lead for the first time in seven lifetime starts, the son of Stephen Got Even more than held his own battling back on the rail to hold off Jackson Bend for the place spot.
The key question for First Dude is how the colt will respond after that gut- wrenching performance three weeks ago. Keep in mind this will be his fifth, two-turn race in 3 1/2 months.
Game On Dude showed promise this winter at Gulfstream Park finishing second in his debut and then breaking his maiden by three lengths next time out. His connections thought so much of that effort they sent him right into the Grade I Florida Derby. It was a case of "too much too soon" as Ice Box crushed him by over 10 lengths. The horse was then sold and sent to Bob Baffert's barn
The Kentucky-bred's first appearance for Baffert came in the Derby Trial, a race he failed miserably, getting beat by almost 20 lengths. However, his poor performance was partly due to the sloppy race conditions.
Baffert then brought the recently gelded three-year-old to Texas for the Lone Star Derby and the results were just what the doctor ordered. Wearing blinkers for the first time, Game On Dude prevailed by almost five lengths with Martin Garcia replacing Robby Albarado in the irons. (One week later, Garcia won the Preakness with Lookin At Lucky.)
After the race, Baffert sent Game On Dude to California and the horse responded with three solid workouts. The son of Awesome Again posted a bullet 1:12 2/5 six-furlong work on May 18, and then put forth a seven-furlong trek in 1:26 3/5 seven days later. (Sangaree, who ran second to Rail Trip in the Mervyn Leroy Handicap, also worked seven furlongs that day finishing up a tick slower in 1:26 4/5.)
In his last work before the Belmont Stakes, Game On Dude fired off another six-furlong 1:12 2/5 bullet, this time from the gate at Santa Anita.
Baffert usually doesn't send horses to New York unless he's confident in their abilities so look for Game On Dude to more than hold his own in the "Test of Champions."
Of the two "Dudes," the one to follow is Game On Dude, especially since it's likely he'll go off at 10-1 or higher. The only question is his ability to get the distance, but that could be said about the other 11 horses in the starting gate.
THE TWO FAVORITES MUST BE RESPECTED
Ice Box has to be held in high esteem after his last two efforts - the monstrous second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby as well as the win in the Florida Derby. He posted a four-furlong bullet workout prior to both races and the son of Pulpit did so again last week at the Saratoga training track. The 1 1/2-miles will not be a problem, but the pace of the race, as mentioned earlier, could work to his disadvantage.
Don't forget, he closed from 19th to finish second in the Kentucky Derby primarily due to the insane early fractions set by Conveyance and Sidney's Candy. That duo reeled off 22 3/5, 46 and 1:10 2/5 splits, and the two horses that were last and next-to-last through those numbers finished second and fourth.
Don't forget, in the Florida Derby, Ice Box benefited from similar fractions (23 1/5, 46 2/5 and 1:10 3/5) and rallied from last to defeat Pleasant Prince by a nose.
Has Ice Box suddenly emerged as a major player or was he the beneficiary of fast early fractions in both races? At 10-1 or higher, he'd be a worthy play in the Belmont Stakes; as the favorite, it's best to side with others.
Jockey J. R. Velazquez takes over the mount from Jose Lezcano on Fly Down, the other horse in the race trained by Nick Zito. Velazquez rode Fly Down in his debut last October at Belmont Park and the pair finished third in a troubled trip.
Since that loss, Fly Down has won three of four appearances, including a pair of victories over First Dude. His only off-the-board finish came in the Louisiana Derby, a race he finished in the ninth spot, beaten 6 3/4-lengths.
His last effort was his best. Going off at 7-2, Fly Down came through with a dominating six-length win over Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes and should on top of his game once again this Saturday.
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
Make Music for Me shocked a lot of people with his fourth-place finish at 30-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but he's well rested after sitting out the Preakness.
Like Ice Box, Make Music for Me benefited from a very fast pace in the Run for the Roses and there are those experts who feel he will bounce from such an effort. Still, the horse is talented enough to have picked up a check in seven of nine career starts, including three in-the-money finishes to Lookin At Lucky.
It's doubtful he'll be able to win the Belmont since he's only won one race, a non-graded stakes race on the turf, but do not toss him from trifecta or superfecta wagering.
Interactif, trained by Todd Pletcher, completes the field of a dozen three- year-olds. The bay colt hasn't raced since a lackluster fourth-place finish as the 3-1 favorite in the Blue Grass, but he's been training well enough for a chance to give Pletcher his second Belmont Stakes victory in the last four years.
The son of Broken Vow never took to the Polytrack surface at Keeneland after a solid second to Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, and Pletcher was all set to run him back on the turf. However, the colt's last two works (1:14 1/5 and 1:00 2/5) convinced him to try one more dirt race.
Interactif broke his maiden on conventional dirt last July at Monmouth Park then ran eighth in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. His four turf starts include two victories, a second, and a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
Unfortunately, he was saddled with post 12, which could have him farther back at the start than expected. Still, look for Interactif to make a run at the leaders around the far turn with a decent chance to stick around for third or fourth at the finish line.
Selections: 1) Game On Dude; 2) Fly Down; 3) Ice Box. The top longshot play is Interactif.
<< Nadal will battle Soderling in French Open final
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Four-time champion Rafael Nadal and last
year's runner-up Robin Soderling will battle in Sunday's men's final at the
French Open.
The second-seeded former world No. 1 Nadal toppled 22nd-seeded Austria
<< New York riding high heading into Chivas USA fixture
Harrison, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York hosts Chivas USA on Saturday
in Major League Soccer action, three days after one of the best results of the
season.
With the score tied a one against the Houston Dynamo deep into stoppage
<< Houston heads across the county to take on L.A.
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three days after suffering a heart wrenching
last-second loss to Red Bull New York in Harrison, NJ, the Houston Dynamo
travel across the country to take on the undefeated Los Angeles Galaxy at The
Home
<< Struggling Wizards visit Red-hot TFC
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Wizards travel to BMO Field to
face Toronto FC on Saturday in hopes of snapping a seven-game winless streak.
Wizards (2-5-2) head coach Peter Vermes has seen his team lose four of its
last
NL West: There's no need to freak out on Lincecum >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum loses back-to-back starts and the entire city
of San Francisco goes into a panic.
Oh my word, the two-time defending National League Cy Young honoree is mired
in a slump and may need Life Alert for the rest
Cavaliers GM Ferry resigns >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Danny
Ferry has resigned, the team announced.
Ferry had been the team's GM since June 2005, and the Cavaliers, led by LeBron
James, made the playoffs in every season durin
AL Central: The aftermath of the Call Heard 'Round the World >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball's latest, and perhaps most
compelling, argument for more instant replay came during the ninth inning of
Detroit's 3-0 win over the Cleveland Indians Wednesday night.
Tigers' right-hander Armando Galar
Trio of FBS transfers joins Georgia State >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Georgia State football program continues to
stockpile FBS transfers, adding former Georgia Tech offensive linemen Joseph
Gilbert and Clyde Yandell, and former Auburn tight end Bailey Woods, GSU head
coach Bill
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football wagering needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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