Dillon quickly making a name for himself in NASCAR

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/12/2010 - Newton, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Look out NASCAR, there's a promising young gun on the horizon.

Austin Dillon is looking more and more like the next big up-and-comer in the sport after winning his first Camping World Truck Series race in dominating fashion on Sunday at Iowa Speedway. His first win came in just his 12th truck start. Dillon also set a record at Iowa by becoming the first rookie in the series to win three consecutive poles.

At age 20 years, two months and 37 days, Dillon became the second-youngest race winner in the 16-year history of the series, behind Kyle Busch, who won at Charlotte in 2005 when he was 20 years and 18 days old.

After leading 187 of 205 laps and holding off NASCAR veteran Johnny Sauter in a two-lap overtime finish, Dillon drove the famed black No.3 in victory lane at Iowa, which was a delight to many race fans around the world.

"It's pretty awesome," Dillon said. "I've wanted to do it for the fans too. I know they want to see it out front, and that's the only way people really want to appreciate it if it's run well, I think. I've put enough pressure on myself to go out and do the best I can every time I get in that truck, and this just proves that we can do it. I'm glad it's the No.3. It's my favorite number to run, and hopefully I can run it for a long time."

Not since the days of Dale Earnhardt have we seen a black-colored vehicle with the No.3 on it win a race in any one of NASCAR's top-three series. Earnhardt made the 3 one of the most popular icons in NASCAR while driving for team owner Richard Childress from the early 1980's until his untimely death during the 2001 Daytona 500.

Dillon is Childress' grandson.

Earlier this month, Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the Nationwide Series race at Daytona International Speedway, driving the iconic Wrangler blue and yellow paint scheme No.3 Chevrolet. Earnhardt Jr. had a one-race deal with Richard Childress Racing to drive the car in honor of his late-father's recent induction into the NASCAR Hall of Fame.

"It's just one of these great days, and to be back in [victory lane] with the 3 last week was special with Dale Jr., but [Sunday] was really special," Childress said after Dillon's win at Iowa.

Childress made the trip to the 0.875-mile track, located roughly 35 miles east of Des Moines, IA, following Saturday night's Sprint Cup race at Chicagoland Speedway.

Currently sitting in the seventh spot in the truck standings, Dillon is far from being counted out of the championship. He trails leader Todd Bodine by 267 points. Dillon is almost certain to receive rookie of the year honors in the series this year, and will take the next career step by graduating to either the Nationwide or Sprint Cup Series in 2011.

"We've kind of sat down and planned out next year," Dillon said. "I'm planning on running the Truck Series again next year, running for a championship again, which I'm really excited for. I think that's the way we need to approach it, is try and get more experience.

"We did win the race [Sunday]. I know everybody wants to move up quick. I feel we're at a point right now where we can take our time. My grandfather is the same way. We don't want to rush things, move up too fast. Just puts you in a bad situation. That's the plan for so far, is to run the Truck Series."

After brief stints in trucks, several drivers, including Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards, quickly elevated to Cup, and did so with a great success.

Busch recorded four victories during his sophomore Cup season, and then went on to win the inaugural championship Chase in 2004. Edwards won four races and finished third in points during his first full season in NASCAR's top-tier series in 2005.

Dillon made his first two truck starts in 2009, with his debut coming last September at Iowa. He originally qualified for the October race at Talladega, but had his time disallowed after his truck did not meet the minimum height requirement during post-qualifying inspection.

He has also made seven Nationwide starts so far, the recent coming last month at New Hampshire, where he drove the No.21 RCR Chevrolet to a 25th-place finish.

Since the start of the season, Dillon has continued to show improvement, finishing no worse than fifth in the last three truck races. Don't be surprised to see him in victory lane again before the end of this year, and rest assured that he's on his way to becoming one of the next big stars in NASCAR.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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It's less than a month until the NHL hockey betting season opens at MySportsbook.com and preparations are underway for another battle in the race to hoist Lord Stanley's mug in 2007.

As cup crazy fans prepare to place their bets, one online sportsbook ,MySportsbook.com, is offering hockey betting lines on the 2007/2007 Stanley Cup , who will bring it home this upcoming season.

Despite a poor showing in last season's playoffs and the loss of Steve Yzerman to retirement, the Detroit Red Wings are early favourites at this online sportsbook with wagering odds of 6-1. The Wings will look to offensive powerhouse Pavel Datsyuk and newly appointed captain Nicklas Lidstrom to lead one of the league's most prominent franchises.

Always a threat are the Ottawa Senators, with newly acquired goaltender Martin Gerber from the Stanley Cup champion ,Carolina Hurricanes. The Sens are second best in the rankings at a 7-1 bet, and odds makers at this sportsbook are optimistic that the Ottawa squad will fare better than last season's Eastern Conference semi-final upset to the Buffalo Sabres.

Also worth noting are the defending Stanley Cup champs Carolina Hurricanes, a 10-1 bet to repeat. Behind the Canes are the New Jersey Devils, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Mighty Ducks all sit at 12-1. In the basement are the Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, and St. Louis Blues who all have 100-1 odds to win.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your hockey betting needs.