Germany should have no problem with Japan

Soccer Betting Lines

09/16/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany received a little dose of reality on Friday when it was held to a 0-0 draw by England after winning the opening game of the tournament 11-0 against Argentina.

The Germans looked unstoppable in pounding the helpless South American team, but they were brought back to Earth by an England side that played them to a very even game.

The draw prevented Germany from booking a spot in the knockout round, but they should have no problem taking care of that on Monday against Japan.

The Japanese have been a very disappointing team so far despite the fact that they have taken four points from two games.

Japan needed two free kick goals from Aya Miyama, including one at the final whistle, to earn a draw with England, and then got a gift goal in the 91st minute against Argentina when the keeper spilled a bad rebound that was tapped home by Yuki Nagasato.

Star midfielder Homare Sawa has had a terrible tournament to this point, but somehow Japan still has a chance to advance to the quarterfinals.

Japan's attack has lacked creativity, which is what Sawa provides in the middle of the field. She has failed to have any impact on either game, but if Japan is to have any chance of a taking a point from Germany, that must change.

The fact that Argentina held the Asian club without a goal for over 90 minutes is a bad sign, and Japan does not figure to have the talent in attack to crack Germany's strong back line.

Outside of Sawa, there is no player who is capable of making an individual play to change the game. The only hope is for Japan to draw a free kick near the box and hope that Miyama can beat German keeper Nadine Angerer, who has looked shaky at times.

Japan has not played poorly defensively to this point, but Birgit Prinz, Sandra Smisek and Kerstin Garefrekes will certainly put them to the test.

Japan allowed England's Kelly Smith to get free for two goals, and Prinz has to be thinking about the next goal that will put her in first place on the all-time goals list in World Cup history.

She will have a good chance to set that record against Japan, which does not have the ability to shut down such a balanced attack.

Japan has been a part of all five World Cups with its appearance this year. However, it has only moved on past the group stage once, and don't expect that to happen this year either.

There is not enough talent or creativity on this Japan side to overcome such a technically strong team, and Germany will advance as expected with a good chance to defend its World Cup title.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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